Gender & Geography Key to Faso's Lead in NY-19 By Luke Perry
This fall the Siena Research Institute released a series of polls for Congressional races from central New York. Previously I examined major takeaways in NY-22. This piece examines major takeaways for the race in NY-19 between first term Republican incumbent John Faso and Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado.
4 Takeaways from NY-19 Poll
1. Faso ahead in this Democratic district
Likely voters in NY-19 favored John Faso over Antonio Delgado 45 percent to 40 percent (4.8 margin of error). 13 percent were undecided.
Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in the district since 2016. Democrats currently have a nearly 6,000 registered voter advantage. Faso was first elected in 2016 by 9 points with 54 percent of the vote.
Both parties exhibited widespread support for their respective candidates. 81 percent of Democrats supported Delgado, while 76 percent of Republicans supported Faso. 15 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of independents were undecided.
2. Faso’s base is grounded in gender and geography
Faso led among men by 21 points, far exceeding national norms for registered voters who are men and identify with, or lean toward, the Republican Party. Delgado had a 9 point advantage with women, below national norms for registered women voters who identify as, or lean toward, the Democratic Party.
Faso received strong support in the Northern half of district. Delgado received strong support in the Southeastern portion of the district, particularly Ulster and Dutchess counties. The closer to New York City, the greater propensity of Democratic voters.
3. Faso is not popular, but Trump is
Even though Faso is ahead, his favorability was only 37 percent. 38 percent of registered voters viewed him unfavorably. 24 percent didn’t know or had no opinion.
Being an incumbent, one would expect greater certainty regarding attitudes toward Faso. The 1 in 4 constituents who are undecided about Faso’s favorability could be impactful, depending if and how their attitudes solidify between now and Election Day.
Antonio Delgado is viewed much more favorably (+12 points) than Faso, but among a smaller sample, given 44 percent of constituents didn’t know or had no opinion.
Gender was a key consideration in favorability, like overall support. Men viewed Faso much more favorably (+17 points) than women (-14 points).
President Trump is more popular in NY-19 (49 percent favorable/44 percent unfavorable) than Faso and existing state and national norms. 55 percent of upstate New Yorker's and 60 percent of Americans at large currently view Trump unfavorably.
4. NY-19 wants Republican control of Congress
NY-19 preferred Republican control of the House (48 percent to 43 percent) to Democratic control. This is a smaller margin than neighboring NY-22 (+13 points), but significant, considering Democrats outnumber Republicans.
This sentiment is an often overlooked data point in nationally competitive districts, like NY-19 and NY-22, as analysts examine the prospects of a blue wave this November. Related polling from these districts suggest voters are satisfied with the Republican Party in power, but are less enthusiastic about the individual Republicans who represent them.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Chair and Professor of Government at Utica College.