Oct 10

Oct 10 NY-22 Minute: Polling suggests Tenney campaign is in trouble By Luke Perry

The Siena Research Institute recently released its first 2020 NY-22 campaign poll. The findings could not be better for first term incumbent Rep. Anthony Brindisi. Claudia Tenney entered the race with notable assets, a proven winner who previously held the seat, as well as major liabilities, losing a Republican district in 2018 when the vast majority of incumbents were reelected. Here are four major takeaways.

Brindisi has a big lead

Brindisi currently has a 9 point lead among NY-22 voters, well beyond the 5 point margin of error, after initially being elected by just one point.

Similar to 2018, Brindisi’s advantage is premised on strong support from Democrats (+69 points), young adults (+31), women (+21), college graduates (+21), and independents (+14). Brindisi is also supported by 20 percent of Republicans, people 55 and older (+12), and voters who live in more rural areas (+13), all core constituencies for Tenney.

Tenney’s favorability has fallen

Claudia Tenney is much less popular than Brindisi and both presidential candidates. 37 percent of NY-22 voters have a favorable view of Tenney. 52 percent view her unfavorably.

Tenney is now less favorable than two years ago during her unsuccessful reelection bid, a potentially catastrophic development this cycle. In 2018, John Katko (R, NY-24), Antonio Delgado (D, NY-19) and Brindisi all won with higher favorability ratings than their opponents.

51 percent of NY-22 voters have a favorable view of Brindisi, 16 points more than those who view him unfavorably. Brindisi’s favorability extends to nearly all ideological, geographic, age, and education demographics.

Brindisi is unpopular among Republicans and Conservatives, while 35 to 54 year old voters are split. Every other demographic group view Brindisi more favorably than not, including pivotal groups, such as moderates (+54).

Brindisi also has a favorability edge in Oneida County, the most populated in the district, surpassing both Trump and Tenney, even though Republicans have a 3,912 registration advantage over Democrats, plus another 2,184 Conservative Party voters.

Trump’s coattails are unlikely to carry Tenney to victory

Tenney’s campaign strategy is premised on greater turnout of Trump supporters this cycle than last. The problem is that Republicans are divided over President Trump and the direction of the country.

Just half of NY-22 Republicans believe the country is headed in the right direction. One-third believe the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, reflecting doubts about presidential leadership.

Trump won NY-22 by 15 points in 2016. 46 percent of NY-22 voters now view Trump favorably. 49 percent do not. 1 in 5 Republicans view the president unfavorably.

The president’s decline is a major obstacle for Tenney, who closely aligned herself with Trump throughout his tenure. Not only does a Trump-related boost now seem unlikely for Tenney, the president may serve as a drag on the ticket as disaffected Republicans refuse to vote for either of them.

Trump and Biden are deadlocked

Trump and Biden are virtually even in NY-22. Biden has a 1 point lead over Trump. This suggests 2020 may resemble 2012, when Mitt Romney narrowly won the district, more than Trump’s landslide victory in 2016.

42 percent of NY-22 voters view Biden favorably, 52 percent do not. Biden is most poorly received in Oneida County (-28), and under water in Broome (-8), a Democratic stronghold, though doing well in the rest of the district (+3) at 49 percent approval.

This is manageable for Brindisi, who built his coalition during a midterm campaign, and is not dependent on the Democratic nominee. Moreover, the data suggests Biden is not hurting Democrats in rural, more conservative counties, many of which Brindisi will lose, but needs to avoid being blown out.

Voters here prefer Biden over Trump 49 percent to 43 percent. 70 percent of rural voters around the country voted for Trump in 2016, but support has fallen 15 points during his presidency.

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Chair and Professor of Government at Utica College.

Read the NY-22 Minute for timely and comprehensive analysis of the NY-22 campaign.