Live from New Hampshire Primary 2024 By Luke Perry
Concord, NH . . . The vibe of the 2024 New Hampshire primary is noticeably different than 2020. Four years ago, the state was the nation’s first primary for both parties and several Democratic candidates tirelessly barnstormed prior to election day. This year the Democratic primary calendar dropped New Hampshire from its state-mandated first-in-the-country primary slot, creating a political rift, and ceding attention to lesser-known candidates, such as Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, who have been campaigning statewide.
Meanwhile, the crucially important Republican primary recently winnowed to Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis did not have sufficient financing or a clear path to victory following a distant second place finish in Iowa, the geographic focus of his campaign.
Trump has spoken at some rallies, but never engaged in the retail politics this primary is known for. This is not his political style, nor necessary given his virtual incumbent position with widespread name recognition, significant fundraising capabilities, and three cycles of presidential campaign experience. Trump won the New Hampshire primary in 2020 and 2016, the latter of which was pivotal to his campaign following a defeat in Iowa.
Photo from Nikki Haley
This year Trump is coming off a historically large victory in the Iowa Caucus. He holds an 11 point lead in the final poll here and a slightly bigger average lead in all New Hampshire polling this campaign. Barring major surprises, the future of Haley’s campaign is heavily dependent on her performance here and in South Carolina next month.
DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott (SC) recently endorsed Trump. The former president has gradually made progress in securing local party endorsements and has a better a campaign infrastructure than 2016.
Haley’s campaign schedule was not jam packed here following Iowa, though this has ramped up significantly over the last few days with numerous meet-and-greets and rallies. Haley refutes Trump’s endorsements by claiming the mantle of political outsider working for the people not the elite establishment.
The sense on the ground is that Haley will not win. 35 to 39 percent may be her ceiling, though it remains to be seen how recent momentum, DeSantis’s exit, and the ability of unaffiliated voters to participate will impact this race.
Luke Perry is Distinguished Professor and Chair of Political Science at Utica University and Director of Utica University’s Masters of Public Administration Program and Center of Public Affairs and Election Research
