NY-22 Minute: Polling & Fundraising Up for Brindisi, Registered Republicans Steady By Luke Perry

NY-22 Minute: Polling & Fundraising Up for Brindisi, Registered Republicans Steady By Luke Perry

The first poll conducted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) suggested Anthony Brindisi is virtually tied with Claudia Tenney considering the margin of error.

Constituents view Tenney more unfavorably (41 percent) than favorably (36 percent). Brindisi was viewed more favorably (23 percent) than unfavorably (12 percent).

The poll found Brindisi has a 24 point advantage among registered independent and unaffiliated voters (55 to 31 percent). Both campaigns hope Martin Babinec voters (12 percent in 2016) break their way.

 Photo by the Observer Dispatch

Photo by the Observer Dispatch

Brindisi has a 16 point edge among women, which in part speaks to the grassroots organization occurring on the left. Women have played a major role in the development of district wide Indivisible and Resist organizations, both in terms of leadership and participation.

65 percent of voters did not know enough about Brindisi to have an opinion about him. Tim Edson, campaign spokesperson for Tenney, responded by saying that “once voters see where he stands on the issues, they’ll know he’s too liberal for this district.”

 Photo by Fox 40

Photo by Fox 40

The Congresswoman has pounded the pavement and brought home the bacon- a standard recipe for electoral success. Going negative early, staff issues, and having a Trump alignment score of 96 percent helps explain why Tenney is not more popular.

It doesn’t help that President Trump hit new lows in favorability among upstate New Yorkers this fall. Around 60 percent view the president unfavorably and think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

 Photo by Getty

Photo by Getty

The DCCC polling results are generally encouraging for Brindisi; however, he declared his candidacy early so voters could get to know him better. Now his own polling tells him most still don’t.

Also, Brindisi has run a fairly boilerplate campaign thus far under DCCC guidance. His campaign website remains basic, particularly compared to Democratic challengers in neighboring NY-19, including Antonio Delgado, Brian Flynn and Jeffrey Beals

Fundraising is important and has been a main focus. Brindisi out raised Tenney during his first full quarter, though Tenney still has a $127,000 overall advantage.

Elections are predominately determined by turnout of fellow partisans. As of this week, actively registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 30,606 in NY-22, a level that has remained relatively constant this year. Tenney is not particularly popular, but she may not have to be if her fellow partisans turnout. 

 

 

Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Chair and Professor of Government at Utica College. 

Read the NY-22 Minute for timely and comprehensive analysis of the campaign. 

 

 

 

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