Nov 11

Nov 11 Republicans rout Democrats in New York House races By Luke Perry

House Democrats performed well in President Biden’s first midterm, where the president’s party typically loses about 40 seats if the president has low approval ratings, far fewer than what happened in 2022. New York and Florida were two states where Republicans did particularly well. Florida continued its conservative shift this century from a swing state to solidly Republican. What happened in New York where Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by a 2 to 1 margin?

Redistricting was disastrous for House Democrats. A 2014 proposition adopted by voters amended the state constitution to create an Independent Redistricting Commission to draw electoral boundaries and prohibit gerrymandering. Earlier this year the commission failed to agree on a House map. The state legislature drew the boundaries, which were signed into law, prompting a legal challenge from Republicans. The NY Court of Appeals ruled the maps were in violation of the state constitution. A special master was ordered to draw new House boundaries.

These boundaries hurt House Democrats’ electoral prospects. The maps drawn by the legislature enabled Democrats to perhaps win 22 out of 26 seats (85 percent) up from 19 of 27 how held by Democrats (70 percent). The final maps drawn by the special master enabled Republicans to have six solid seats and perhaps win another six in competitive districts. Republicans won all but one of these seats.

Democrats immediately faced problems in the primary. Two longstanding New York City Representatives were pitted against each other in NY-12 as Jerry Nadler defeated Carolyn Maloney. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney opted to run in his home district under the new boundaries (NY-17), rather than NY-18, which he currently represents. This bumped incumbent Rep. Mondaire Jones, creating a stir among Democrats and prompting a primary challenge, as Jones ran elsewhere and lost. And Democrats had sought to make NY-11 more competitive, attempting to again defeat Nicole Malliotakis as they did in 2018, but the new districts boosted Republican standing, strengthening Malliotakis’ reelection bid.

In the general election, Republicans convincingly won all 6 districts they were expected to. Three of these were super-Republican upstate districts (NY-21, NY-23, and NY-24). Three of these were solidly Republican Long Island districts (NY-1 and NY-2), plus the aforementioned NY-11, where Malliotakis won by 22 points, a 15-point jump from 2020. Republicans also picked up two Democratic vacancies in NY-3 and NY-4. George Santos and Anthony D’Espostio will replace Thomas Suozzi and Kathleen Rice, who did not run for reelection. As a result, Republicans will hold 5 seats from New York City next Congress.

The most competitive races were found through Central New York, broadly understood, spanning from the Hudson Valley up to Syracuse. Republicans won three out of four of these highly contested districts.

Mike Lawler defeated Sean Patrick Maloney in NY-17. Maloney’s incumbency in NY-18 was muted by the fact that about 75 percent of his new district was not part of his current constituency. This victory was particularly sweet for the GOP considering Maloney is chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Marc Molinaro defeated Josh Riley in NY-19, while Brandon Williams likely defeated Francis Conole in NY-22, where votes are still being tallied. All three of these races were close with Republicans winning by just one or two points.

Pat Ryan holds a very narrow lead over Colin Schmidt in NY-18. This will likely constitute the only victory for Democrats in highly contested seats this cycle. Ryan won the special election in NY-19 earlier this against Molinaro, to fill the remainder of Antonio Delgado’s term, before his home was redistricted to the 18th district.

Photo from Representative-elect Mike Lawler

These GOP victories combined a little bit of everything. Lawler is an upcoming Republican dynamo in the Hudson Valley, having previously defeated a longtime incumbent to win in NY Assembly District 97 two years ago. Molinaro has widespread name recognition and previous statewide campaign experience as a major figure in New York state politics for some time. Williams is a political novice, who ran on being a business owner. His extraordinarily strong showing in Oneida County enabled him to win a slightly Democratic district that now has Syracuse as its geographic base.

Successful Republican candidates were boosted by the most competitive gubernatorial race since 2002. Lee Zeldin’s strong campaign strengthened Republican candidates on his home turf of Long Island, as well as more conservative Upstate New York, who traditionally support Republican gubernatorial candidates. Zeldin prioritized crime, which was a top issue for voters according polling.

Crime provided a foundation for House Republican candidates to build upon with other issues popular among conservatives, including illegal immigration, the opioid crisis, and reforms to the state bail system. Republicans presented the election as a referendum on the Biden and Hochul administrations. This message was buoyed by Democrats maximizing control of the federal and state government during the Trump era and the lingering challenges of economic instability and high inflation.

Republicans are poised to hold 11 New York seats in the new Congress. This will increase their portion of the state delegation from 30 percent to 42 percent, the largest share in many years.

Luke Perry is Professor of Political Science at Utica University and Chair of the Center of Public Affairs and Election Research at Utica University