Republican Party looks to Donald Trump for electoral strategy to their peril By Luke Perry
The Republican Party looks to Donald Trump for electoral strategy to their peril. Trump twice failed to win more votes than his Democratic opponents, had smaller vote shares than Mitt Romney in 2012, became the first incumbent to lose reelection in 30 years, and first president to lose the White House, House of Representatives, and Senate over a four year span since Herbert Hoover.
Trump’s ability to generate enthusiasm among a robust slice of the Republican base is remarkable, and populist appeals will endure, but his politics is fundamentally one of personal grievance. Trump appears more concerned with retribution for Republicans who voted to impeach and convict him during his second trial, than retaking the House or Senate.
Photo from U.S. House of Representatives
For now, Trump is not forming a third party, but raising and spending money to bolster candidates like him in launching Congressional primary challenges is the opposite of what Leaders Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy want and need in trying to expand their caucus, particularly with a challenging Senate map this cycle. This morning, NRCC Chair Tom Emmer, a Trump supporter, echoed this sentiment.
Talk of laser beams, such as Leader McCarthy’s defense of Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene (GA-14), is a losing message and look in the suburbs where Democrats have dominated since 2018, as is the false narrative of a stolen election. Moreover, the January 6 act of domestic terrorism is toxic for Trump and his historical revisionist supporters.
Trump is still fueled by charisma, premised on a conservative talk radio and reality TV persona, but running on fumes electorally. Only 55 percent of CPAC attendees, comprised of his staunchest supporters, recently indicated they would vote to nominate Trump in 2024.
Trump will likely tease a 2024 bid for awhile, raise money to attack perceived enemies within the party, but probably not run. Returning to 2020 four years from now, when the COVID pandemic is over and our economy is better, makes for a difficult campaign proposition, particularly with Trump’s unpopularity and baggage.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Professor of Political Science at Utica College
