NY-22 Minute: 22nd Not as Republican as Tenney Claims By Luke Perry

NY-22 Minute: 22nd Not as Republican as Tenney Claims By Luke Perry

Claudia Tenney recently told Joleen Ferris of WKTV NewsChannel 2 that the 22nd district “is very different than the old 24th, which was a moderate district. This district is much more Republican than the district that Sherry Boehlert or Mike Arcuri or Richard Hanna held in the first term. I'm a perfect fit for this district for this reason." I fact checked this by examining party registration numbers provided by the New York State Board of Elections.

As seen below, there were more registered Republicans in 2016 compared to 2010, when Richard Hanna was elected, and 2006, when Michael Arcuri was elected. Data was not digitally available for when Sherry Boehlert was first elected.

At the same time, the number of registered Democrats also increased steadily. Since both parties grew in number, the size of the Republican advantage, compared to Democrats, becomes pertinent. Republicans experienced the largest registration advantage in 2008, when Richard Hanna lost to Michael Arcuri, not in 2016 when Tenney was elected.

                                        Republicans                    Democrats

2016 (NY-22)                    172, 553                         146, 503

Claudia Tenney (R)          +26, 050    

  

2010 (NY-24)                    157, 080                         134, 985

Richard Hanna (R)          +22, 095

 

2006 (NY-24)                   164, 729                         126, 524

Michael Arcuri (D)          +38, 205

Source: The New York Board of Elections

Note: These numbers are from November of each year. 

 

These three elections were part of a larger trend of Republican advantage among registered voters decreasing consistently this century. As seen below, this difference was significant before and after redistricting.

Republicans                Democrats          

Nov. 2016 (NY-22)                          172,553                      146,503       

                                                          +26,050

Nov. 2014 (NY-22)                         169,255                       140,707        

                                                          +28,548

Nov. 2012 (NY-22)                        175,986                       146,862       

                                                         +29,124

Nov. 2010 (NY-24)                        157,080                        134,985     

                                                         +22,095

Nov. 2008 (NY-24)                        163,012                         134,929     

                                                           +28,083

Nov. 2006 (NY-24)                       164,729                         126,524     

                                                          +38,205

Nov. 2004 (NY-24)                       171,155                        129,849     

                                                          +41,306

Nov. 2002 (NY-24)                       172,707                         130,622   

                                                         +42,085

Source: The New York Board of Elections

 

As seen below, the registration advantage for Republicans among “active” party members was relatively constant between 2008 and 2016 with the exception of 2010, when it dropped slightly. The advantage in 2008 (the first year this data is digitally available) was on par with 2012, 2014, and 2016. Thus, the 22nd district did not get an influx of "active" Republicans after redistricting either. 

Active Republicans           Active Democrats

Nov. 2016 (NY-22)             159,569                              131,271                                                                                           +28,298

Nov. 2014 (NY-22)             156,492                             124,981                                                +31,511

Nov. 2012 (NY-22)             165,097                             134,110                                                                          +30,987

Nov. 2010 (NY-24)             148,024                             124,653                                                                                              +23,371

Nov. 2008 (NY-24)            152,373                              124,432                                                +27, 941

Note: Inactive registration results from not having voted in two consecutive elections and not responding to repeated requests for verification.

Source: The New York Board of Elections

 

In sum, this data suggests that NY-22 is actually less dominated by Republicans than the NY-24 was earlier this century. Republicans enjoyed a greater registration advantage in the NY-24 prior to redistricting and their edge among active party members has remained relatively similar over the last five election cycles.

 

 

 Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Chair and Professor of Government at Utica College.

Paul Joyce (University of Albany) contributed to this report.

 

 

 

 

How Vulnerable are House Districts Clinton Won? Preliminary Analysis of Pennsylvania By Paul Joyce

How Vulnerable are House Districts Clinton Won? Preliminary Analysis of Pennsylvania By Paul Joyce

How an Evolving U.S. Workforce Poses Challenges for Employer Based Health Coverage By Nicky Riordan

How an Evolving U.S. Workforce Poses Challenges for Employer Based Health Coverage By Nicky Riordan