NY-22 Minute: 22nd Not as Republican as Tenney Claims By Luke Perry
Claudia Tenney recently told Joleen Ferris of WKTV NewsChannel 2 that the 22nd district “is very different than the old 24th, which was a moderate district. This district is much more Republican than the district that Sherry Boehlert or Mike Arcuri or Richard Hanna held in the first term. I'm a perfect fit for this district for this reason." I fact checked this by examining party registration numbers provided by the New York State Board of Elections.
As seen below, there were more registered Republicans in 2016 compared to 2010, when Richard Hanna was elected, and 2006, when Michael Arcuri was elected. Data was not digitally available for when Sherry Boehlert was first elected.
At the same time, the number of registered Democrats also increased steadily. Since both parties grew in number, the size of the Republican advantage, compared to Democrats, becomes pertinent. Republicans experienced the largest registration advantage in 2008, when Richard Hanna lost to Michael Arcuri, not in 2016 when Tenney was elected.
Republicans Democrats
2016 (NY-22) 172, 553 146, 503
Claudia Tenney (R) +26, 050
2010 (NY-24) 157, 080 134, 985
Richard Hanna (R) +22, 095
2006 (NY-24) 164, 729 126, 524
Michael Arcuri (D) +38, 205
Source: The New York Board of Elections
Note: These numbers are from November of each year.
These three elections were part of a larger trend of Republican advantage among registered voters decreasing consistently this century. As seen below, this difference was significant before and after redistricting.
Republicans Democrats
Nov. 2016 (NY-22) 172,553 146,503
+26,050
Nov. 2014 (NY-22) 169,255 140,707
+28,548
Nov. 2012 (NY-22) 175,986 146,862
+29,124
Nov. 2010 (NY-24) 157,080 134,985
+22,095
Nov. 2008 (NY-24) 163,012 134,929
+28,083
Nov. 2006 (NY-24) 164,729 126,524
+38,205
Nov. 2004 (NY-24) 171,155 129,849
+41,306
Nov. 2002 (NY-24) 172,707 130,622
+42,085
Source: The New York Board of Elections
As seen below, the registration advantage for Republicans among “active” party members was relatively constant between 2008 and 2016 with the exception of 2010, when it dropped slightly. The advantage in 2008 (the first year this data is digitally available) was on par with 2012, 2014, and 2016. Thus, the 22nd district did not get an influx of "active" Republicans after redistricting either.
Active Republicans Active Democrats
Nov. 2016 (NY-22) 159,569 131,271
Nov. 2014 (NY-22) 156,492 124,981
Nov. 2012 (NY-22) 165,097 134,110
Nov. 2010 (NY-24) 148,024 124,653
Nov. 2008 (NY-24) 152,373 124,432
Note: Inactive registration results from not having voted in two consecutive elections and not responding to repeated requests for verification.
Source: The New York Board of Elections
In sum, this data suggests that NY-22 is actually less dominated by Republicans than the NY-24 was earlier this century. Republicans enjoyed a greater registration advantage in the NY-24 prior to redistricting and their edge among active party members has remained relatively similar over the last five election cycles.
Luke Perry (@PolSciLukePerry) is Chair and Professor of Government at Utica College.
Paul Joyce (University of Albany) contributed to this report.
